The Safest Predictions For 2026
Plus one risky prediction
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Some predictions for 2026
At the risk of being a promise-and-fail merchant this fine Christmas season: I’m going to write a few more newsletters than usual (I still owe you four back editions). It’s been a stupidly busy end to the year, but you didn’t sign up for excuses, so let’s get on with it.
Smarter Substack writers than me usually end the year reading the tea leaves to see what the future portends. Then they share their predictions; educated guesses that sometimes land, and other prognostications which need adjusted parameters to be halfway right.
I have a lazier alternative: a list of ridiculously safe predictions. The kind I can revisit in December 2026 and act like I’m Nostradamus.
1) Open Banking will finally be operational
Nigeria has had Open Banking guidelines since March 2023, but barring some insane last-minute work from the CBN, we will end the year without going live.
So, one of the safest predictions for 2026 is that we will finally have Open Banking (CBN, don’t fall my hand) in 2026. I wrote in May that the timeline being floated internally was August, but stakeholders did a lengthy back and forth over the mechanics Open Banking should have (I also wrote about that here).
The Prediction: The initial rollout of Open Banking will be a non-event. The big banks will comply with the letter of the law while gatekeeping the quality of data so that fintechs will still prefer the illegal efficiency of screen-scraping. In its first year, I expect a theatre of compliance where banks pretend to open the door while keeping the safety chain on.
2) No more launch first and ask for forgiveness later
The CBN is cracking down on the idea that fintechs can launch first and ask for forgiveness later, and has stepped up compliance accordingly.
Per Cardoso at the November Bankers Dinner, the CBN will deliver durable price stability, modernise payments, and explicitly foster responsible fintech innovation.
The Prediction: 2026 will be the year of Regulatory Chokehold. The CBN’s responsible innovation agenda is code for “permission-based growth.”
More fintechs will get slapped with fines, and at least one will be asked to shut down a feature they didn’t seek regulatory approval for. Before now, “chopping cane” was for the banks alone. Now, the cane will touch everybody’s neck.
3) The NGX Tech Board will remain a ghost town
The NGX is having a moment (PwC’s capital markets update notes total stock market transactions on the NGX were ₦4.19 trillion in H1 2025, up from ₦2.6 trillion in H1 2024). Despite the charm offensive, Nigerian startups are still treating the local exchange like a toxic ex.
The Prediction: No venture-backed Nigerian tech startup will IPO on the NGX in 2026. VCs are still hunting for USD-denominated exits, and the liquidity on the NGX isn’t sufficient to satisfy a Series C cap table. The Tech Board will continue its winless run, not for a lack of trying but because the valuations of some of these startups suggest they need a massive exit that the NGX may not quite have the appetite for.
Also, I’m not sure any startup wants to bell the cat.
4) Jumia will break even in 2026
Taking Jumia at its word is not for the faint of heart, but they’ve spent 2025 acting like a company that knows what matters.
They’ve figured out their business model while keeping expenses in check. They didn’t get obliterated by Temu/Shein, and inflation in Nigeria, a key market, is easing.
The Prediction: Jumia will hit breakeven in 2026. It won’t be because of a massive surge in Nigerian consumer spending. It will be because they’ve cut every excess to the bone and made even more inroads into secondary cities.
Let me break my rule and go with one risky prediction.
5) The “Fin-Bank” Merger: A neobank buys a dinosaur
The CBN recapitalisation window ends March 31, 2026, and with 16 banks already compliant, the rest of the market will raise more money, downgrade their licence, or merge.
The prediction: in 2026, a top-tier fintech will attempt to acquire or merge with a smaller, capital-constrained commercial bank.
The upside isn’t “cheap deposits” (many already have that) but new earnings levers (hello, treasury income) that fintechs largely watch from the outside.
This also gets more attractive if 2026 brings tighter supervision across the system: owning a bank can be a defensive move. It won’t be a consortium of competitors; the CBN will want a clearly accountable anchor buyer with serious governance, which makes Moniepoint or OPay the most plausible candidates. And the targets that are actually “snappable” are the regional commercial banks (Parallex, SunTrust, Signature) because the recap hurdle starts at ₦50bn. Once you’re shopping national, you’re basically committing ₦200bn+ in fresh capital before you even negotiate a price.
N:B Whatever happened to Paystack’s Zap? Somewhere between the issues over name ownership and getting slapped with a CBN fine, there’s been very little said about it. And only recently, Flutterwave launched a product that pretty much targets Zap’s market: the IJGB’s. It’s detty December, so if you’re an IJGB, I’d love to hear what apps you’re using to navigate your vacation.
Alright, see you in the next one!