Very well written piece. But is HabariPay not processing mostly merchants in its own ecosystem? People that were already using GTB services before and just categorising the POS and payment revenue under another entity instead of the bank? I say this because I do not know of a single person or business who chooses to use Squad or Habaripay as its first choice of payment partner.
My take is that GTCo has succeeded mostly in preventing a lot of its loyal customers from leaving its ecosystem, as opposed to capturing new businesses. It's actually a decent strategy...not game changing or disrupting. But at least you protect your turf
"GTCO never needed to win the entire fintech market. It needed to stop fintechs from eating profitable pieces of its business without a response. On that narrow thesis, HabariPay is progress."
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You're right. On the basis of convincing its existing base to use the product and then extract billions of profit, it works.
Banks are like battleships, established fintechs are like missiles and a new startup is essentially a drone. If you understand the battlefield well enough, you can build a sizable moat at any level.
I believe the conversation requires a more nuanced financial perspective.
In just four years of operation, HabariPay has processed over ₦150 trillion in transaction value while delivering approximately ₦9.7 billion in profit. Within the Nigerian fintech landscape, that is a remarkable performance profile for a relatively young institution. Very few fintech companies operating at similar scale and maturity can point to comparable profitability metrics within such a timeframe.
The industry often places disproportionate emphasis on customer acquisition numbers and transaction volumes. While those metrics are important indicators of market penetration and distribution strength, they do not, on their own, determine the quality or sustainability of a business model.
The more critical questions are:
- What is the company’s earnings efficiency?
- What is the return generated on deployed capital?
- How sustainable are the margins?
- How effectively is scale being converted into profitability?
This is where the distinction becomes important.
Large customer bases do not automatically translate into healthy economics. High transaction volumes without corresponding profitability can create impressive optics while masking weak monetization efficiency. In financial analysis, scale without earnings quality is incomplete.
To be clear, OPay, PalmPay, and Moniepoint have all executed exceptionally well within their respective market segments and deserve recognition for driving financial inclusion and digital payment adoption at scale. However, operational scale and financial performance are not always synonymous.
Large assets are not equivalent to strong Return on Assets (ROA).
Significant shareholder equity is not equivalent to superior Return on Equity (ROE).
High revenue generation is not equivalent to strong Profit Before Tax (PBT).
The quality of earnings matters just as much as the size of operations.
Another critical factor often overlooked in fintech discussions is leadership quality and institutional discipline. HabariPay benefits from the strategic guidance and execution experience of Segun Agbaje, a seasoned banking executive with deep understanding of capital allocation, risk management, regulatory navigation, and long-term business sustainability.
In financial services, leadership quality is frequently the differentiator between rapid expansion and durable value creation. Strong technology without disciplined strategic leadership rarely produces enduring institutions.
So, is HabariPay performing strongly? Evidently, yes.
Will it dominate every segment of the fintech ecosystem? That remains uncertain, as the market is large and highly competitive.
But from a financial performance and institutional efficiency standpoint, HabariPay’s trajectory deserves serious attention.
Ultimately, a proper assessment of who is “winning” in the fintech industry should move beyond headline valuation narratives and customer acquisition statistics. The real answer lies in the underlying ratios, earnings quality, capital efficiency, and long-term sustainability of the business model.
The article did not set out to assess "who is winning." That's probably an article you want and one that is useful.
What the article set out to show is that being a "profitable subsidiary" and "winning fintech" are hardly the same thing.
In 2020, he told analysts GTBank would win payments "very easily." In 2026, the line is that GTCO is "no longer scared." The article notes the distance between those two claims.
Very well written piece. But is HabariPay not processing mostly merchants in its own ecosystem? People that were already using GTB services before and just categorising the POS and payment revenue under another entity instead of the bank? I say this because I do not know of a single person or business who chooses to use Squad or Habaripay as its first choice of payment partner.
My take is that GTCo has succeeded mostly in preventing a lot of its loyal customers from leaving its ecosystem, as opposed to capturing new businesses. It's actually a decent strategy...not game changing or disrupting. But at least you protect your turf
"GTCO never needed to win the entire fintech market. It needed to stop fintechs from eating profitable pieces of its business without a response. On that narrow thesis, HabariPay is progress."
-
You're right. On the basis of convincing its existing base to use the product and then extract billions of profit, it works.
They sha won something right?
They didn't win the whole thing like they said they would sha 🫵🏿
Banks are like battleships, established fintechs are like missiles and a new startup is essentially a drone. If you understand the battlefield well enough, you can build a sizable moat at any level.
This was such a good read
Thank you 🤝🏿
This is really good
Thank you so much!
I believe the conversation requires a more nuanced financial perspective.
In just four years of operation, HabariPay has processed over ₦150 trillion in transaction value while delivering approximately ₦9.7 billion in profit. Within the Nigerian fintech landscape, that is a remarkable performance profile for a relatively young institution. Very few fintech companies operating at similar scale and maturity can point to comparable profitability metrics within such a timeframe.
The industry often places disproportionate emphasis on customer acquisition numbers and transaction volumes. While those metrics are important indicators of market penetration and distribution strength, they do not, on their own, determine the quality or sustainability of a business model.
The more critical questions are:
- What is the company’s earnings efficiency?
- What is the return generated on deployed capital?
- How sustainable are the margins?
- How effectively is scale being converted into profitability?
This is where the distinction becomes important.
Large customer bases do not automatically translate into healthy economics. High transaction volumes without corresponding profitability can create impressive optics while masking weak monetization efficiency. In financial analysis, scale without earnings quality is incomplete.
To be clear, OPay, PalmPay, and Moniepoint have all executed exceptionally well within their respective market segments and deserve recognition for driving financial inclusion and digital payment adoption at scale. However, operational scale and financial performance are not always synonymous.
Large assets are not equivalent to strong Return on Assets (ROA).
Significant shareholder equity is not equivalent to superior Return on Equity (ROE).
High revenue generation is not equivalent to strong Profit Before Tax (PBT).
The quality of earnings matters just as much as the size of operations.
Another critical factor often overlooked in fintech discussions is leadership quality and institutional discipline. HabariPay benefits from the strategic guidance and execution experience of Segun Agbaje, a seasoned banking executive with deep understanding of capital allocation, risk management, regulatory navigation, and long-term business sustainability.
In financial services, leadership quality is frequently the differentiator between rapid expansion and durable value creation. Strong technology without disciplined strategic leadership rarely produces enduring institutions.
So, is HabariPay performing strongly? Evidently, yes.
Will it dominate every segment of the fintech ecosystem? That remains uncertain, as the market is large and highly competitive.
But from a financial performance and institutional efficiency standpoint, HabariPay’s trajectory deserves serious attention.
Ultimately, a proper assessment of who is “winning” in the fintech industry should move beyond headline valuation narratives and customer acquisition statistics. The real answer lies in the underlying ratios, earnings quality, capital efficiency, and long-term sustainability of the business model.
The article did not set out to assess "who is winning." That's probably an article you want and one that is useful.
What the article set out to show is that being a "profitable subsidiary" and "winning fintech" are hardly the same thing.
In 2020, he told analysts GTBank would win payments "very easily." In 2026, the line is that GTCO is "no longer scared." The article notes the distance between those two claims.