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A change in fortunes
The first technical GSM call in Nigeria was placed on May 6, 2001, on Econet’s network with Strive Masiyiwa calling the regulator to say, “We’re live.” Commercial services followed in August 2001, with MTN and Econet as the two market participants.
Telecoms is the modern Nigerian economy’s favourite case study and ready poster child of liberalisation. The lesson is roughly that the government should set the rules and step aside. Full liberalisation was achieved in 2000 through policy and, later, the 2001 GSM auction. The 2003 Act made the NCC a powerful referee. Sections 108/110 of the 2003 Act put tariffs under NCC oversight.
Yet, it wasn’t price controls so much as competition and investment that shaped the market. Glo’s August 2003 entry with per-second billing forced everyone to follow and SIMs went from luxury to free. Price wars began in earnest.
Ironically, the same competitive pressures pushed the NCC to lift retail data prices in 2016. After removing the ₦3.11/MB floor in 2015, the regulator ordered a new minimum of ₦0.90/MB from December 1, 2016 (small operators were exempt) to curb below-cost promos. The uproar was immediate: a Senate motion, a State House rebuke, and a suspension within 24 hours. ALTON protested the U-turn, arguing the price war was unsustainable without a floor.
Another coordinated push to raise tariffs began in May 2022. Operators asked the NCC for roughly 40% increase across voice/SMS/data citing diesel and power costs, FX and inflation, plus new levies—complete with proposed new floors and caps. The NCC publicly declined and told subscribers to ignore hike notices.
Then the economy took a battering. By 2024, MTN Nigeria posted a ₦550.3bn pre-tax loss and ended the year with negative equity; Airtel Africa swung to a $89m net loss on heavy naira-related FX hits. It’s hard to invest in networks when you’re making losses.
The NCC blinked first. In January 2025, it allowed tariff increases capped at 50%, well below what operators wanted. Labour Unions, the House of Reps and consumer advocates pushed back: quality hadn’t improved, why should prices? The counter-argument was that 2013-era prices can’t fund 2025 networks, and you either fix the price or accept a slow decline.
Ultimately, prices rose despite the protests and unsurprisingly, customers kept buying SIM cards and data. MTN’s subscriber base climbed to 85.4m subscribers and 51.1m active data users, with data traffic up 36%.
Airtel’s Nigeria unit tells the same story: $1.045bn revenue, Average Revenue Per User up ~33%, and a larger base (53.3m customers, 29.1m data users).
Here’s Karl Toriola, MTN Nigeria’s CEO, on the company’s nine-month financial report for the period ended September 2025: “We are pleased to report that MTN Nigeria has restored its positive retained earnings and shareholders’ equity positions. This is a significant milestone that demonstrates strong operational momentum and disciplined execution.”
All that to say, MTN’s revenue rose to ₦3.7 trillion, and profit after tax to N750 billion. The cynics will, of course, wonder how much higher these figures would have been if the NCC had approved a 100% tariff increase.
It’s worth mentioning that some of the bad fortune from 2023 fortune also forced some grown-up discipline for the telcos.
MTN renegotiated tower leases, squeezed operating cost and even hailed its cost discipline in its financial statement, not words you hear often from a historically profitable company.
Airtel Nigeria sits near ~50% margin too, evidence that belt-tightening and paying customers can coexist. You can’t ignore a calmer naira as no one is reporting FX-related losses.
To hear the telcos financial statements tell it, the good times are back.