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Hope you are all enjoying the international break.
Remember the first rule of the international break: never believe everything you read in the news, because journalists and influencers alike are bored and need to drive engagement somehow. The second rule is also simple: Henry, Kevin De Bruyne, Ronaldo - Top 3 in the EPL, in that order.
Last Season we made the league table and a FinTech starting XI. This season, we are making season predictions.
Everyone starts off the football season making predictions, but I prefer to play it safe by waiting until the window is closed and the first international break has arrived, seeing as Enzo Maresca’s new-look Blues will determine my mood and my publishing schedule for the next 11 months.
Manchester City are top of the league heading into the break, continuing where they left off in a two-horse race against Arsenal. Manchester United are so bad Old Trafford is now a prayer ground; can someone send pastors to Chelsea and Tottenham’s stadiums as well?
This is not a football newsletter, I promise.
In Nigeria, as the season has started, major moves have been made, from Flutterwave appointing a new CFO, to Piggyvest releasing a new suite of products and features at their open house, to Uber’s exit, the Monieworld shutdown, and the Dangote Refinery IPO.
So here are a few safe or satirical predictions for the next 11 months, depending on your point of view.
Heads up: this is entirely unserious business.
Sure 2 Odds
Every Flutterwave interview, press release, or article asks the IPO question
With OPay publicly courting IPO press, the media pressure on Flutterwave will intensify within the next 11 months, as every move they make will be scrutinised through that lens.
The Providus-Unity Merger becomes a technology post-mortem
Last year, the core banking upgrades of GTCO, Zenith, and Sterling Bank left their customers stranded for months. Following the Providus-Unity merger, customers seem to be having a terrible digital experience due to the weight of the merger. Expect these pains to last into the new year.
Yet another financial services platform gets breached
Already this year, Sterling Bank, Remita, and now Fairmoney have been breached by attackers, leaving financial services platforms vulnerable and leaking customer data in the process. With the rise in AI attacks and hacks, coupled with upcoming elections, the cybersecurity industry is not prepared to mount a strong defence against threats in the coming months.
A prediction markets platform will get in trouble
Between regulatory clarity and trading on election results, prediction markets may find themselves in regulatory or political hot water in the coming months. Consumer protection or electoral manipulation, take your pick
Undisclosed Q4 Acquisitions
As the year winds down, companies start being honest with themselves on meeting year-end projections and how much runway they have left. The end of the year is traditionally when deals get closed quickly, and we should be expecting this trend to continue. Let us know potential acquisition candidates in the comments
Last-minute Detty December features
Nothing says Q4 in Nigeria like those last-minute, usually half-baked features and products built for the sole purpose of capitalising on the Detty December wave and Diaspora market. The best time to plant a tree was in February, people. If your December feature isn’t on ice and ready to be announced by October, do not bother.
Wildcard bets
The Moniepoint V OPay battle gets ugly.
With the exclusivity rules in place, and the CBN market-share rules, which stop anyone holding more than 25% of card issuing from holding more than 15% of merchant acquiring (and the same in reverse), these two companies, which lead in both categories, will take their long-running turf battles to new, ugly heights. The winners, as always, will be the customers and the lawyers involved.
Glovo leaves Nigeria
Uber left Nigeria on 2 September, and a day later Delivery Hero’s board backed Uber’s offer for the company that owns Glovo. Once that deal completes, expect Uber to pull the plug on Glovo here too, leaving Chowdeck and Swoop to feed the market. Completion is some way off, since shareholders have until 5 November and competition authorities on several continents still get a say, so this one could take time.
Stablecoin/Multicurrency/remittance market consolidation begins
Everywhere you go, there’s a platform trying to sell you stablecoins, remittances and multicurrency accounts, and at this point there are more platforms in existence than customers who need these products.
Using Monieworld as an example, and the fact that Nigerian banks are now taking that same customer profile seriously again, expect rollups, consolidations and mergers of different kinds in this space.
Jumia becomes profitable
Nothing to add here; listen to our two episodes on Jumia for the Africa Built podcast on Africabuilt.xyz or read through the Notadeepdive Jumia archive.
The Accumulator
Someone launches an AI chatbot
Someone closes shop and invokes Teddy Roosevelt’s “man in the arena” on the way out
Nigerian regulators continue to issue contrasting pieces of regulation for the same industry
MTN MoMo tries to compete again in the press
Signing of the Season
Not a company. A technology. Just like Pep playing out of the back or Klopp’s gengenpressing style.
Stablecoin settlement.
Specifically settlement, not payments.
With SWIFT finally running a blockchain ledger pilot with 17 banks in July, and PAPSS expanding its blockchain functionality, expect the CBN and the banks to join in, starting with moving money between their own entities across multiple countries.
Under Pressure
Consumer neobanks without a merchant business.
Crypto exchanges
Standalone lenders
African Expansions
Leicester 5000/1 odds
Uber comes back to Nigeria
Let’s imagine that the country’s economic fortunes turn around favourably following the elections such that Uber reverses its decision and re-enters the Nigerian market. I can already see part of the LinkedIn and Twitter hot takes.
That’s it; see you all at the end of the season
Hashtag Not Guilty Your Honour !!
Let us know your picks for Manager of the Season, Breakthrough of the Season, Dark Horses, and Biggest Flop.
Leaderboard so far
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LISTEN TO AFRICA BUILT
In the fourth episode of Africa Built, we conclude our two-part series on Interswitch.
Part One ended in December 2010, when Helios bought two-thirds of the company from the founding banks.
See you next week!
Jumia profitability under wildcards. Chai 😂💀